Talking the Tropics With Mike: Idalia over the West Atlantic while tropical storm Jose develops

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*** LOCAL (Jacksonville/NE Fl./SE Ga.) IMPACTS FROM THE TROPICS:

None through the weekend...

The Atlantic Basin Overview:

“Idalia” made landfall on the Florida Big Bend a little before 8am Wed.... moved across the far Southeast U.S. & is back over the Western Atlantic.

Meanwhile...“Franklin” hit Haiti & especially the Dominican Republic with very heavy rain last Wed. The hurricane rapidly intensified to a high end Cat. 4 Monday when the storm finally found the “sweet spot” of the SW Atlantic but at least is not a threat to land. There will be some distant impacts (waves & rip currents) on the U.S. east coast through Thursday with rough seas & surf & gusty winds for Bermuda where conditions will improve the next couple days.

And tropical depression #11 formed Tue. morning over the Central Atlantic but will not likely be around long.

(1) The area of disturbed weather near the Yucatan - Tropical depression #10 - strengthened into tropical storm “Idalia” late Sunday morning & the third hurricane of the ‘23 Atlantic season early Tuesday... & steadily strengthened overnight into early Wed. with a peak at Cat. 4 Tue. night before making landfall early Wed. - about 7:50am - during an eyewall replacement cycle. This cycle along with friction from land helped begin a slight & slow weakening trend while moving ashore. The weakening center of Idalia reached the coast again early Thu. morning between Myrtle Beach & Charleston. Weather conditions will continue to improve for Northeast Florida & Southeast Georgia.

Steering currents collapse by the weekend which allows Idalia to slow & meander over the Western Atlantic. A loop is not likely, & it appears Idalia will remain well offshore of the U.S. & should eventually get pulled northward by a passing trough of low pressure to the north.

Spaghetti plots including ensemble (instead of running just a single forecast, the computer model is run a number of times from slightly different starting conditions. The complete set of forecasts is referred to as the ensemble, and individual forecasts within it as ensemble members.) “Idalia”:

(2) “Franklin” (upgraded late last Sunday) over the Northern Caribbean becoming a powerful hurricane east of the Bahamas over the SW Atlantic making the sharp turn to the north. The combination of lessening shear plus strong upper level diffluence thanks to a trough of low pressure to the north with very warm water below helped intensify Franklin to a Cat. 4 Monday. There will be some impacts for Bermuda into Wed. as the eye moves by to the west & north but not a direct hit on the island. Franklin should take a sharp enough turn to the east before turning more northward gain so as to *not* have significant direct impacts on Canada with the possible exception of some wind + rough seas & surf for far Eastern Newfoundland & Labrador.

(3) Tropical depression #11 has formed over the Central Atlantic & was upgraded to tropical storm “Jose” early Thu. but is expected to be short-lived. No threat to any land areas.

(4) And yet another tropical wave - ‘94-L’ is moving west off the coast of Africa. Some gradual development will be possible over the open E. Atlantic.

Check out the upper oceanic heat content (UOHC) [tropical cyclone heat potential/TCHP] across the SW Atlantic, Gulf & Caribbean. The warmth is very deep. But keep in mind warm ocean temps. alone doesn’t necessarily equate to a “big” hurricane season (need other ingredients & factors to be favorable too) but it’s obvious there is a lot of very warm water at great depths over the Caribbean & Gulf of Mexico:

Water vapor loop (dark blue/yellow is dry mid & upper level air):

July tropical cyclone origins:

Averages below based on climatology for the Atlantic Basin for August:

Wind shear:

Saharan dust spreads west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, the peak of Saharan dust typically is in June & July.

2023 names..... “Katia” is the next name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years). Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20, Ida in ‘21 & Fiona & Ian in ‘22]). In fact, this year’s list of names is rather infamous with “Katrina”, “Rita” & “Wilma” retired from the ‘05 list & “Harvey”, “Irma”,“Maria” & “Nate” from the ‘17 list. The WMO decided - beginning in 2021 - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic. The brighter colors are expanding dramatically as we near the peak of the hurricane season.:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:

Caribbean:

GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

East/Central Pacific:

I wrote about “Hilary” near the top after the Atlantic waves. Elsewhere.....

West Pacific:

Global tropical activity:

“Saola” will impact the east coast of China the next few days:

“Haikui” is forecast to impact Taiwan by the weekend:

“Kirogi”:

Cox Media Group