Talking the Tropics With Mike: Blas develops over the E. Pacific

No threat to land... while low pressure continues over far W. Caribbean

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REMEMBER WHEN A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE IS APPROACHING: Taping windows is *NOT* helpful & will not keep glass from breaking.

Realize the forecast cone (”cone of uncertainty”) is the average forecast error over a given time - out to 5 days - & *does not* indicate the width of the storm &/or damage that might occur.

As Jacksonville celebrates its 200th birthday Wed., June 15th, when it comes to weather - the tropics have a tendency to dominate Jacksonville’s history. Read all about it * here * in the “Buresh Blog”.


Weak low pressure continues over the far W. Caribbean. Proximity to land should generally limit development but there may be a small window for some strengthening late in the week/this weekend as the low briefly moves away from Central America & briefly over some warm water before moving ashore again on the Yucatan Peninsula. A persistent & strong upper level high pressure over the Central & Eastern U.S. should steer any eventual development to the west or northwest far to the west of Fl. & likely south of the U.S. gulf coast.

Meanwhile... a complex of t’storms is over the W. Atlantic midway between Jacksonville & Bermuda partially helped by the tail end of an upper level trough of low pressure & dissipating frontal boundary. Surface development is not expected but the storm complex is rather impressive on satellite imagery. We may see low pressure trying to develop over the Central Atlantic next week but far to the east of the U.S.

Wind shear analysis shows winds out of the west at more than 50 mph! over parts of the Southern Gulf & N. Caribbean:

The location of development of tropical systems in June since 1851 generally favors the NW Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico & far Western Atlantic:

Saharan dust is spread west each year from Africa by the prevailing winds (from east to west over the Atlantic). Dry air - yellow/orange/red/pink. Widespread dust is indicative of dry air that can impede the development of tropical cyclones. However, sometimes “wanna’ be” waves will just wait until they get to the other side of - or away from - the plume then try to develop if other conditions are favorable. In my personal opinion, way too much is made about the presence of Saharan dust & how it relates to tropical cyclones. In any case, we’ve already has a couple of dust plumes spread west to the Caribbean & Gulf with the peak of Saharan dust typically in June & July.

2022 names..... “Alex” was the first name on the Atlantic list (names are picked at random by the World Meteorological Organization... repeat every 6 years... “Bonnie” is next. Historic storms are retired [Florence & Michael in ’18... Dorian in ’19 & Laura, Eta & Iota in ‘20 & Ida in ‘21]). The WMO decided - beginning last year - that the Greek alphabet will be no longer used & instead there will be a supplemental list of names if the first list is exhausted (has only happened three times - 2005, 2020 & 2021). The naming of tropical cyclones began on a consistent basis in 1953. More on the history of naming tropical cyclones * here *.

East Atlantic:

Mid & upper level wind shear (enemy of tropical cyclones) analysis (CIMMS). The red lines indicate strong shear:

Water vapor imagery (dark blue indicates dry air):

Deep oceanic heat content over the Gulf, Caribbean & deep tropical Atlantic:

Sea surface temp. anomalies:

SE U.S. surface map:

Surface analysis centered on the tropical Atlantic:

Surface analysis of the Gulf:


GFS wave forecast at 48 & 72 hours (2 & 3 days):

Atlantic Basin wave period forecast for 24, 48 & 72 hours respectively:

The East Pacific:

“Blas” has formed over the E. Pacific & is forecast to strengthen while moving W/NW away from the mainland of Centra America & Mexico. The system should dissipate next week over the Pacific.

The E. Pacific looks to be the “hot spot” of the globe - tropically speaking - for the next 10 days or so.

West Pacific IR satellite:

Global tropical activity:

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